Bring It On, John

I'd be lying if I didn't say up front: I'm stunned. No polling data could convince me that Kerry and Edwards would rise from the ashes to finish 1-2 in Iowa.

I'm convinced now. After watching the speeches of all four major candidates tonight, Edwards and Kerry have something that Dean doesn't: they both talk about ideas and real people. Dean's appearance was awful. He listed states, shouted in Spanish, and looked like a madman. More than the fact that he didn't find a way to win Iowa, that turned me against him tonight. And so did something very small: he was not polite. He came on stage when Edwards was still delivering his speech, and to me that's either an inexcusable gaffe or a sign of highly unpalatable aggressiveness and impoliteness.

Speaking of Edwards, his speech was almost Clintonian in excitement and personality. He talks about issues that others shirk, like poverty, and he didn't once bash Bush; even a bloodthirsty liberal like me can appreciate how that positivity plays, especially among the on-the-fence women we need to attract to win back the White House. Oh, and he's pretty attractive, too--he's rich but it doesn't show, and he's just the right balance of pin-up model and average guy. If the race were a beauty pageant, he'd take it.

Poor Gephardt. Edwards and Kerry both graciously acknowledged his years of service, a big plus for me; again, Dean didn't do the basic, decent thing. I know the two of them were in a dogfight, but when a man delivers the knockout punch, his next move should be to lift the guy up off the canvas. I hope Dick Gephardt finds himself the Secretary of Labor a year from now.

And Kerry. Wow. He showed a charisma I hadn't seen before. He sounded presidential, and it's obvious he's learned how to use his experience to his advantage. Please, John, don't run back to your safe strategy. If you're going to win this nomination and challenge George W. Bush, you need to stay as excited and connected with voters as you sounded tonight. Kerry turned the Rove strategy on its head: of course Bush is running on national security. He can't run on jobs! He can't run on national health care! He can't run on leaving no child behind! And the new frontrunner made a statement that warmed my heart: his attorney general won't be John Ashcroft. Kerry knows what gets the base going.

I'm not writing off Dean's chances. And Clark can still make waves. But tonight, it looks a lot more like the Democratic nominee could be named John. And I could be very happy with that.