Polls Show Nov. 2 Race Even as Bush Bounce Fades
Yes, the vote counter today says it's Bush 311, Kerry 223 in the battle for the Electoral College. And yes, that's really bad news for Kerry. But if the four recent polls that show the national race is tied again are correct, I predict the following changes:
Maine becomes a Kerry state again. Net +4 for Kerry, no change for Bush. Bush 311, Kerry 227.
Pennsylvania returns to Kerry. Net +21 for Kerry, -21 for Bush. Bush 290, Kerry 248.
New Jersey goes back to being a strong Kerry state. Net +15 for Kerry, -15 for Bush. Bush 275, Kerry 263.
Colorado goes back to Bush pending their referendum. Net -9 for Kerry, +9 for Bush. Bush 284, Kerry 254.
Wisconsin, Florida, and Nevada become tossups. No change for Kerry, -42 for Bush. Bush 242, Kerry 254.
If all of that happens, the presidency will hinge--surprise, surprise--on three states, with the very real possibility that the two candidates will finish tied at 269 if Bush pulls off a Florida win and Kerry gets the other two. If Nader stays off the ballot in Florida, though--which will depend on what the state's high court does tomorrow--it's more realistic for Kerry to win Florida by picking up the Nader vote, while Bush will benefit from Kerry's inability to remember the name of the place the Packers play in Wisconsin and also cling to Nevada for one more cycle. That would put Kerry in the White House, 281 to 257.
It's a perfectly plausible road to victory, Kerry: Win Pennsylvania, without which you're hopeless; get cracking in Florida, which would have gone for Gore by thousands if not for butterfly ballots, black voters purged from the rolls, and Ralph Nader; and you can even afford to give back a Gore state in Wisconsin. Heck, you could lose Iowa, too, and still win if you can get Florida. For all your floundering, you're still in this thing. Don't screw it up.
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3 comments:
Note that this morning, my predictions about Maine and Colorado came true! If Kerry can get back his Pennsylvania dominance and if things go well in Florida today, we could have ourselves an interesting election...
Richard, I couldn't agree with you more. Kerry is still in this thing -- if only barely at this point. He made a wise move by hiring the former Clinton aides. I suspect, there may be an even larger shift in Kerry's favor before the month is out. It appears Kerry will keep up the attacks on Bush's record and remember we have our first debate on Sept 30. I have my finger's crossed that Kerry will come away with a strong debate performance. I believe the first debate is the most important. Whoever wins that one will have the upperhand going into Nov. 2. The other two will just be a formality.
Zach
I agree about the Clinton coup. Those folks know how to win.
The first debate is definitely the most important. Viewership for the first debate is historically about 40% higher than for the subsequent debates. After the first one a storyline kind of gets set...Kerry needs to realize that going into the first one and think of it as his last chance to A) sell himself to the American people and B) draw blood on Bush. Assuming he'll get two more shots--or one, if Bush has his way--is a recipe for disaster. If this were a boxing match, Bush would be the kind of fighter who would punch Kerry in the crotch while the referee was distracted; Kerry needs to beat him to the punch and set him staggering.
Can you tell I'd like to see an actual fight between the two men? Politics has gotten too prominent in my thoughts...
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