Monday, May 31, 2004

Slaughter Rule?

Obama gets early boost from voters
Democrat leads Ryan by 22 points


Clearly it's too early to call any race over, but if you had to bet on any supposedly competitive Senate race, I think you'd have to pick Illinois. With a 52-30 lead, Barack Obama looks destined to take the place that national media--including, this week, the New Yorker--have chosen for him, as only the third African-American Senator since Reconstruction. This early in the election cycle, a quarter of Illinois voters already have a bad impression of Republican Jack Ryan, compared to only a tenth who view Obama unfavorably. And in a race where 18% of voters didn't choose either candidate, Obama still checks in over 50%. Good luck, Jack Ryan. I hope you kept your day job.

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