Tuesday, August 03, 2004

Bounce This, Dowd

BC04: Setting the Bar Low

Sometimes I just want to give the finger to the Bush-Cheney campaign. Here's Matthew Dowd's kindly pre-emptive response to the inevitable questions about what kind of bounce Bush will get from his convention, courtesy of Wonkette:

"I know this is a question that will come up, about what kind of bounce do we expect at our convention. Looking at it historically, incumbents usually get a bounce that's equal to about two-thirds of what the challenger's bounce is. So if you want to put that in your calculus: Incumbents get two-thirds of what the challenger got as their bounce. So two-thirds of zero is -- and my math is pretty simple here -- is zero. So, that's our expectation on our bounce."

To see why Dowd is full of it, take a look at the electoral vote counter to your right. 328-210 doesn't look like zero to me. You've got to hand it to Dowd, though: he made any bounce Kerry might have gotten look puny by (cunningly, and with full knowledge that his prediction wouldn't come true) forecasting a 15-point jump after the convention; now I'm sure he'll get front page coverage for his stunningly self-effacing, and conveniently expectations-lowering, prediction about his own convention. Here's hoping he turns out to be right, and Bush really doesn't get a boost...not that it matters either way. Kerry's gonna blow Bush out of the water in the debates.

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