Four More Years

While I was flying home from New York on Sunday, this blog turned four. As the "Blogiversary" appointment on my calendar popped up that morning before I shut down my laptop for my trip home, I wondered: Do I still have something to say?

I do, of course, though I find myself less inclined to write about each upheaval in the political world. I didn't even write last week about the bridge collapse in Minneapolis--and I took that bridge to and from work every day for two years.

Two interesting things happened in the last two days. The first was my tryout for Jeopardy. I went downtown yesterday and joined 22 other people who had passed an online contestant test earlier this year in taking another test, playing a mock game, and being interviewed by the contestant-finding team. They didn't give any indication of who had done well or poorly, but I felt good walking out. At some point in the next 18-24 months, my phone may ring, and it may be Jeopardy calling to invite me to appear on the show. Anyone who knows how nervous I am by nature can imagine how I will be reacting to a ringing phone from now on...

The other interesting thing, which has more to do with the blog, is that I was invited this morning into Amazon's Vine program, which is starting soon. The program has a lengthy description, but it boils down to this sentence from my invitation: "As a member of this exclusive community, you will have free access to pre-release and new products, as well as the opportunity to be among the very first to review them."

I'm also allowed--encouraged, in fact--to post these early reviews on my blog. So, expect to see more reviews of new books, movies, and music in the future, and less political commentary. (I think you've figured it out by now, right? Gay marriage? Yes. Stay in Iraq forever? No. Democrats? Good, mostly. Republicans? Bad, mostly. Religious Right? Bane of my existence.) And, of course, you'll still see discussion of the plethora of TV shows I'll be watching again come fall. Though the jury is still out on watching the next season of Idol come January...

Idol Predictions, Round of Two

It's all over but the crying. Oh, wait--Jordin has not only already won the crown, she's also already cried at the end of the Idol song! Does this mean we can skip her coronation tonight and pretend this whole season never happened?

Idol Predictions, Round of Three

Tonight I have to tip my hand. I expect one finale next week and desire another. I think Randy will probably be proven right, and next week we'll see Melinda and Jordin face off. But that will be a boring show! Blake, who I'm predicting will go home tomorrow night, would be much more fun to watch next week--and if he reprised his Bon Jovi week performance of "You Give Love a Bad Name" he might even win the whole thing. That would be an injustice--Melinda earned the crown weeks ago--but at least he'd have done something Melinda couldn't do to steal her prize. A Melinda-Jordin battle is a competition of similar styles and strengths, and Melinda simply owns Jordin. Sadly, that's the finale I think America will choose.

Look Ma — No Hands!

Trying to Keep the Viewers When the Ads Come On - New York Times

Oh no! The ad-supported world of TV is crashing down around itself! DVRs are to blame!

You all know about this by now. Armed with an HD DVR, you are the master of your own cinema. It's a beautiful thing. But not for the networks, who depend on you watching the very commercials that the DVR makes it so easy to skip. The only way to defeat this is to make the ads part of the program, a strategy American Idol has mastered and other programs are beginning to use.

As interesting as this problem is, though, how can malarkey like this make the Times? "...more viewers are watching shows delayed rather than live, using TiVo and other DVRs," the article linked above says. "Research indicates those viewers are more likely to fast-forward through spots than those who watch live TV."

Really? And here I thought people who were watching live TV couldn't fast-forward through commercials at all. What's that? They can't? Then how on earth could anything but what the NYT wrote be true? Tautologies are hardly news. "Viewers who can fast-forward through commercials are more likely to do so than viewers who can't." That's what the article basically says. People who have hands are more likely to give handjobs than people who don't, too, you know. I look forward to reading about that illuminating fact in the Times tomorrow...

Burn Off

NBC :: Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip

Well, that didn't take long! After mere months of waiting, NBC has announced that the next episode of Studio 60 will air on Thursday, May 24 at 10/9c. Can you guess what May 24 is?

OK, time's up. It's the first day after sweeps month ends! NBC, which considers 7 million viewers a victory at this point, is burning off a show it spent megabucks on a night when most folks will be in recovery from a season finale binge. (May 23, for instance, is the two-hour American Idol finale--also known as the TV event that will put Fox over the top for the month.)

Maybe NBC has come up with a brilliant strategy, though: With nothing else on, maybe people will give the show a look. Or maybe they'll start their Memorial Day weekend festivities early and completely ignore it again. If this episode is anything like the ones that preceded this long gap, they won't be missing much.

[UPDATE, 5/14: Studio 60 has been canceled. Apparently six more episodes remain and will be aired. Farewell, Harriet Hayes!]

Idol Predictions, Round of Four

Tonight's show simply confirmed the order anyone who has watched the show for the last few months has, by now, probably accepted. Melinda is on top and on track to win the whole thing; any other result would be an upset. Jordin isn't pitch-perfect, but she's on a collision course with the chance to prove that she's more Clay Aiken than Justin Guarini. Blake mixes it up, but for every time he succeeds he has a weak moment. And LaKisha is the least adventurous of the remaining four, doesn't take good advice from experts, and misses notes.

And at this point, how it is and how the votes come out will probably be the same. Blake will smell danger--but LaKisha will taste it. Good luck, Miss Jones.

Idol Predictions, Round of Six Again

Jordin Sparks should be thanking her lucky stars right now. Last week she was good--though not as good as the judges claimed--but this week she delivered an almost Sanjaya-bad performance of "Livin' on a Prayer." Were this week's votes the only determining factor, she'd be in serious danger.

But that's not the way it works. As it stands, I expect she'll be safe. Melinda's two weeks of solid performances should protect her as well. And if Blake's insanely creative rendition of "You Give Love a Bad Name" isn't enough to land him a spot in the final four, this competition has gone completely off the rails.

That leaves LaKisha, Phil, and Chris. After this week's powerhouse, I think LaKisha may have done enough to stave off elimination for one more week. That leaves Chris and Phil heading home. Seems about right, doesn't it?

Idol Predictions, Round of Six

A surprisingly good week, wasn't it? But there were definitely different levels of good--and at least one pretty bad performance from a fellow who may finally take his whine home.

This week I predict a bottom three of LaKisha, whose "I Believe" was passable but didn't touch the original; Blake, whose "Imagine," for all of Simon's protests of sincerity, didn't seem believable, and
your loser, Chris, whose vocals will not change the world today, tomorrow, or anytime soon.

What did you think?

Survivor

Gonzales plays down role in firings - Politics - MSNBC.com

Well, Sanjaya has let me down--or, more accurately, Alberto Gonzales has proven more resilient than a cockroach after a nuclear winter. I predicted more than a month ago that Sanjaya would last longer on Idol than Alberto would at the DOJ, but he's lying to Congress this morning while Sanjaya makes the morning TV rounds after his ouster.

The Gonzales hearing probably won't yield much truth, but it has served one purpose: MSNBC.com has finally stopped running a full-width banner of Cho Seung-Hui pointing a gun at me across its main page. Don't get me wrong: I'm not diminishing the importance of this story. But just because NBC "got lucky" and received a package of audiovisual material from a killer doesn't mean the network has an ethical imperative to plaster footage and pictures everywhere they can.

And where are all the folks who scream about copycat crimes based on violent movies? Here's a deranged guy who shot up his campus and guess what? His message of anger and rage is finally being heard by someone other than his video camera. His picture is everywhere; pull up any major news site this morning and there was Cho, glock in hand, looking for all the world like an action hero about to seek justice at gunpoint. Comparing himself to Jesus Christ, railing against America's consumer culture, blaming the victims of his crime--all of this Cho has been able to do posthumously because no one in NBC's news room had the sense to say, "Stop. Wait. This may be interesting, but should we really reward the brutal murder of 32 people by publishing the last manifesto of their killer?"

Copy a violent movie? Why bother? Now misanthropes the world over have a good example of how to go out in a blaze of glory. I bet every person who reads this can think of someone they knew in college who had the potential for an act like this, even if he or she wasn't as disturbed as Cho clearly was. The knowledge that all their demented notions could be put out into the world for public consumption is the kind of thing that might put people like this over the edge.

So again, thank you, Alberto, for finally forcing MSNBC to acknowledge that there are more interesting things in the world than the ramblings of a killer. Like the ramblings of a torture-abetting, law-breaking, rule-bending, unqualified nightmare of a "public servant" desperate to cling to his job.

Idol Predictions, Round of Seven

Boy, Ryan Adams must be pissed this morning. A popular contestant on America's most popular television show performs one of his best songs, and the show calls it a Tim McGraw song!? Oh well; Adams probably collected the money the show pays to clear a song. Unless even the producers didn't know it was his!

Anyhow, I'm thinking Blake will be safe, along with Melinda, who was really the only contestant to take the country theme and nail it. Shocking, I know. Maybe she'll be the one who gets to pick which group of three is the top and which is the bottom, Idol's favorite week-of-seven trick.

Despite DialIdol putting him first, I have to put Phil in my predicted bottom three this week--force of habit. I see the nasally Chris ending up in the middle as well, and boy, wouldn't it be nice if this was his week? But I fear that this may be the week when America finally stops dialing for LaKisha, who hasn't put it all together into a showstopper in many, many weeks. Seeing a talented black female singer go in this round would be far from unprecedented; the round of seven was the end of the road for Jennifer Hudson, too.

And yes, DialIdol also has Sanjaya in last place, but I won't believe it until he's actually on the plane back to Seattle!

If I'm right, that would give us a top six with four boys and two girls. Who'd have thought?

Idol Predictions, Round of Eight

Well that was ghastly, wasn't it? Latin night went over as well on American Idol as it would on Lou Dobbs Tonight. Few of the singers seemed to get into their songs, and the judges mostly seemed to notice.

Anyhow, I'm going to stick to my guns and predict that Haley's stick-to-her-gams strategy will finally fail. She should be glad, too: she's pretty much out of leg to show. She'll be joined in the bottom three by Phil, whose personality continues to induce yawns even as his singing wobbles between OK and last night's not-so-good. The third member of the unholy trinity is harder to predict, but while I have "Conga" in my head this morning, LaKisha's rendition last night wasn't particularly special and she went early. But it shouldn't matter. Haley has to go home sometime, right?

Oh, one more thing: This is the first time Sanjaya will avoid the bottom three and almost have earned it.

Idol Predictions, Round of Nine

After last week, when I confidently stepped up to the plate and hit a triple only to be called out stealing home (translation: I picked the bottom three right but sent the wrong one home), I feel less certain about what tonight will bring. The bottom three should be Sanjaya, Haley, and Phil, but I'm predicting only Haley will actually get there. Phil's comments about his wife, I'm guessing, provoked a lot of women to dial his number while wishing their own husbands were half so romantic. And Sanjaya is on track to be a bigger star than any of the others, despite his utter lack of talent. Instead, I see Gina being punished for a weak song; she should have found a way to throw a bit of her style into it to keep her fans voting. And Blake's performance, which seemed great when it opened the show, didn't stand out by the end; I see the curse of first continuing and him making a surprise stop at the center of the stage. It will be short-lived, though, and Haley will finally--finally!--go home. I hope.

Idol Predictions, Round of Ten

An entertaining night, wasn't it? But not the best, vocally, which makes this tough. Despite her unexpected tenacity, I see Haley finally going home this week (but then, I said that last week, too). If not Haley, then who? Chris Richardson would be a good choice after being in the bottom two last week, but going last will save him from his own miserable vocals. Instead, the other Chris and Phil will join Haley in this week's bottom three. Or so I'm guessing. Sanjaya, you ask? After that hairdo, we may be seeing him in May!

Bad Call

"Idol" Results Show: Time Flies When You're Being Had
ANATOMY OF AN "AMERICAN IDOL" RESULTS SHOW

Well, it looks like those fifteen calls I made for Melinda should have been directed to Stephanie instead. I know she wasn't going to win, but she sure deserved better than 11th place. Further proof that where you finish within the top 12 has only the slightest correlation to your relative level of talent!

The link above provides a minute-by-minute rundown of the results show last night, commercials and all. As it makes clear, the show is pretty much one big ad with almost no content. Perhaps that's why we're able to watch it in just 15 minutes on the DVR--and spend part of that time ignoring it.

Idol Predictions, Round of 11

Here we go again. While the pundit at MSNBC would have you believe that the departure of another boy tonight is inevitable, DialIdol--which showed a chink in its armor last week when Sanjaya was predicted to finish second and ended up in the bottom two--has a lot more girls than boys on its endangered list.

While I missed both bottom three members who got to stick around last week, I am standing pat and predicting, again, that Haley Scarnato and Gina Glocksen will be in the bottom three. They will be joined, sadly, by Stephanie Edwards, who chose a slow Dusty Springfield song ("You Don't Have to Say You Love Me") when a fast one ("Son of a Preacher Man") would have been perfect for her.

Common sense and the curse of going first will prevail, however, and Haley will finally go home.

Idol Predictions, Round of 12

I'm going to predict a bottom three and the person who will go home from now until the end of the contest. My predictions are based on own viewing of the show, opinions heard from others at work, DialIdol stats, and MSNBC polls about the contestants. They are NOT about who sang the best or the worst, but about who I think America will reward with the fewest votes.

Tonight, I expect to see Brandon Rogers, Gina Glocksen, and Haley Scarnato in the bottom three. Brandon will go home. Finally!

As for Sanjaya, I still predict he will last a while (in spite of bizarre hair, hoop earrings, and vocals unfit for the shower). How long? Let's go with longer than Alberto Gonzales will have a job...

Good Gay Week

Shocking night on ‘American Idol’

I guess Mandisa has time to ponder her "lifestyle" now. It's a shame such a talented performer would be eliminated so early, but if someone had to go out of the consensus order, which would have sent Bucky and Ace home next, I'm glad it was Mandisa. Whether it was her anti-gay commentary or her general preachiness on-stage (her last spoken word on the show was, fittingly, Jesus), I believe she did this to herself.

In other good news, a soon-to-be presidential candidate, Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, called the "Marriage Protection Amendment" that is before the Senate this week a "mean-spirited attempt" to discriminate against gays and lesbians, and further stated that he now supports legalized gay marriage. While I don't think Feingold will emerge with the nomination, or that he has a chance of becoming president, he has earned my vote in the primary unless and until another Democrat stakes out the same position.

Indeed, even Wal-Mart has decided this week that gays are good for something. Despite pressure from the American Family Association, it refused to pull Brokeback Mountain from its stores. Better yet, the movie sold 1.4 million copies on its first day of release. (My copy is on its way from Amazon as I type this.)

As if that weren't enough, I'm hearing rumors that Kevin Bacon will appear in the finale of Will & Grace...